Bitcoin (BTC) attempted to reclaim the $108,000 resistance level again but faced rejection as the third quarter (Q3) started, leading some market watchers to suggest caution for the upcoming months.
Bitcoin Holds Crucial Range
Bitcoin’s price ended the second quarter with a retest of the $108,000 barrier before being rejected and closing Q2 and June around the $107,140 area, its highest monthly close in history.
Despite the positive performance, the flagship crypto started July with a pullback toward the $105,000, hitting a one-week low of $105,623. Analyst Rekt Capital affirmed that this suggested BTC’s post-breakout retest is in progress, which would strengthen the cryptocurrency’s case for another leg up.
The analyst previously explained that Bitcoin needed a weekly close above the $104,400 support after losing it, as reclaiming this area would solidify its price recovery and position the cryptocurrency for a retest and confirmation of this level.
Additionally, it would continue building its base around this area to transition into BTC’s second Discovery Uptrend. According to the Tuesday analysis, the new weekly close suggests Bitcoin is positioned for another post-breakout retest.
The analyst also noted that, in the past 40 days, BTC broke out of two 2-week downtrends but was rejected from the crucial 6-week downtrend, around the $108,000 mark, during the same timeframe.
Sjuul from AltCryptoGems noted the rejection from this level, affirming that “it is mandatory for bulls to step in quickly and not allow the price to have too big of a dip.” The flagship crypto needs a “strong bounce from the most important support and resistance level, just at $106-104K,” which it has momentarily held.
To the analyst, failing to hold this area would open the door for a bigger pullback, risking a drop to the Macro support between $101,000 and $102,000. He highlighted a big gap between the current support area and the Macro support, which formed on the recent price recovery.
BTC Risks Massive Drop In Q3
Sjuul pointed out that below the $101,000 support, “there is not much to defend the price from falling much lower,” adding that the “historical quarterly return of BTC for Q3 has not been great, so this adds some extra caution to the picture we have taken from the chart.”
Similarly, Daan Crypto Trades asserted that historical data shows that Q3 is generally the slowest period for Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) due to the decreasing activity, volume, and liquidity during the summer months.
He added that, as a new quarter and month begin, BTC will likely see a “choppy start,” but Bitcoin is still consolidating within its current range and descending channel, suggesting that investors should give it time to “play out and watch for confirmations” of the direction it will take for the rest of the month.
Nonetheless, analyst Ali Martinez gave a warning signal, as an indicator that had predicted “every major Bitcoin crash” has just appeared. Per Martinez, the Tom Demark Sequential indicator, a rare warning that has historically preceded violent pullbacks, flashed a sell signal in the quarterly timeframe.
Notably, the same signal appeared in 2015 and 2018, with BTC retracing over 75% and 85% after the indicator flashed. If it follows its historical performance, the analyst forecasted that BTC could drop to the $40,000 mark this quarter.
As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $105,901, a 1.16% decline in the daily timeframe.