0922 GMT – Bitcoin rises to another record high as it nears the key $100,000 level on bets U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will deliver more crypto-friendly regulation. “We have refrained to talking about cryptocurrencies given their volatile nature,” Jefferies economist Mohit Kumar says in a note. “But given our thesis that sectors benefiting from deregulation should be the outperformers in the coming months, we expect cryptocurrencies to continue to perform.” The positive momentum in cryptocurrencies should continue, he says. Bitcoin rises to a high of $99,525, according to LSEG. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0921 GMT – The euro and European bond yields fall after weaker-than-expected French, German and eurozone purchasing managers’ index surveys. The eurozone composite PMI fell to 48.1 in November from 50.0 in October. Economists in a WSJ survey expected a reading of 49.8. A level below 50 signals a contraction in economic activity. The euro falls to a 23-month low of $1.0336 after the data. The 10-year German bond yield is last down 7 basis points at 2.243% and the French equivalent is down 6bp at 3.049%, according to Tradeweb. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0907 GMT – Base metal prices slide, with LME three-month copper down 0.3% at $8,996 a metric ton and LME three-month aluminum down 0.5% at $2,619 a ton. Industrial metals have struggled in the wake of the U.S. elections and the rising dollar, while disappointments over the strength of Chinese stimulus measures have also weighed to the downside, BMI analysts say in a note. Copper sits down 6.4% on month, while aluminum is down 0.6% on month. The greenback had pushed higher on the back of the potential for higher inflation under the Trump presidency alongside lower Federal Reserve interest rate-cut expectations, BMI says. Looking ahead, Trump’s victory presents a downside risk to base metal prices given rising expectations of a stronger-for-longer U.S. dollar, a headwind for base metals, BMI adds. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)
0851 GMT – India’s 2Q GDP growth data is expected to reflect an economic slowdown, Citi research analysts write in a note. They estimate GDP growth for the latest quarter at 6.3% on year, down from 6.7% in the previous quarter. The slower growth may partly stem from unfavourable base effects, they say. While agriculture is likely to be a bright spot, industrial growth likely faced the most significant challenges, they add. Citi sees downside risk to its full-year growth forecast of 7.0% but anticipates growth could rebound in the coming quarters, driven by increased government spending. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)
0843 GMT – Gilt yields edge lower following weaker-than-forecast U.K. retail sales data and ahead of preliminary U.K. purchasing managers’ index data for November at 0930 GMT. U.K. retail sales contracted 0.7% during October, below the consensus forecast of 0.2% growth by economists in a WSJ poll. Retail sales are likely to rebound in November, however, as falling interest rates are expected to boost spending, Pantheon Macroeconomics Rob Wood says in a note. The 10-year gilt yield and the 2-year gilt yield each decline 2 basis points to 4.414% and 4.352%, respectively, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0836 GMT – The dollar rises to a 13-month high on safe-haven flows and cautious remarks from a Federal Reserve official about prospects for interest-rate cuts, ING analyst Francesco Pesole says in a note. “Markets are clearly taking the escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war more seriously, which is favouring a broader rotation to [safe] haven assets like the dollar,” he says. Fed official John Williams also likely supported the dollar by saying the U.S. isn’t quite there yet on inflation and the jobs market needs to cool further. The DXY dollar index rises to a high of 107.209. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0830 GMT – The outlook for Singapore’s manufacturing and trade-related sectors has grown more uncertain in 2025, though it remains upbeat, Maybank Research analysts say. The upswing in global electronics demand is likely to persist, driven by the tech refresh cycle and the rollout of artificial intelligence-enabled devices, they note. However, they highlight rising growth risks from potentially higher import tariffs under the incoming Trump administration, which could have a “knock-on impact” on Asian manufacturing supply chains. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0821 GMT – Singapore’s economy is set to make a solid recovery this year after a weak 2023, DBS economist Chua Han Teng says after final data confirmed a strong 3Q performance. Revised 3Q data was significantly better than advance estimates, reflecting broad-based improvement across the manufacturing, construction and services sectors, he says. External-oriented sectors performed better in the first three quarters of 2024 compared to 2023, Chua adds. DBS’s baseline view is for a steady expansion in these sectors over the coming quarters amid resilient external demand even as risks are tilted to the downside. DBS raises its 2024 growth forecast to 3.8% from 3.5% and keeps its 2025 forecast at 2.8%.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0819 GMT – Malaysia’s inflation could rise to 2.3% in 2025, up from the projected 1.9% this year, UOB economists Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting say in a note. They highlight that potential demand-driven inflation pressures, the impact of Trump’s economic policies, fluctuations in commodity prices and currency volatility could create uncertainties for the 2025 inflation outlook. Given these uncertainties, Bank Negara is likely to maintain the policy rate at 3.00% through 2025 while closely monitoring domestic and external factors, they add. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0813 GMT – Singapore’s businesses face a volatile global economic environment with higher downside risks, says DBS economist Chua Han Teng. Corporate profits have recovered in 2024 amid improved external conditions and Singapore’s economic growth will be solid, he says. “We expect a dynamic outlook for 2025,” but are mindful of heightened risks, especially from a wider trade war under a second Trump administration, he says. Trade tensions among major economies are likely to rise under Trump 2.0 as the president-elect has indicated higher tariffs on imported goods. However, the eventual global economic impact of U.S. policies will depend on how they are rolled out. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0801 GMT – Sterling falls against the euro but is little moved versus the dollar after data showed U.K. retail sales unexpectedly fell in October. Retail sales declined 0.7% month-on-month in October. Economists in a WSJ survey expected a 0.2% rise. Consumers were “scared off the high street” ahead of an anticipated tough U.K. government budget on October 30, Ebury’s Phil Monkhouse says in a note. A rise in energy prices and other cost of living concerns also weighed on consumer confidence, he says. The attention now turns to U.K. purchasing managers’ data at 0930 GMT. EUR/GBP is last up 0.3% at 0.8342, compared to 0.8329 before the data. GBP/USD falls 0.2% to 1.2570, compared to 1.2572 beforehand.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0750 GMT – Retail sales should recover in the U.K. in the last months of the year, Capital Economics’ Ashley Webb writes in a note. Sales unexpectedly slumped by 0.7% in October, and September’s growth was revised down to just 0.1% in figures set out Friday by the Office for National Statistics. But as real incomes rises, Britons should feel more comfortable about spending over the crucial festive period, Webb says. “The outlook is improving,” he says, noting rising confidence among consumer in a survey published separately Friday. (joshua.kirby@wsj.com; @joshualeokirby)
