0852 GMT – Bitcoin edges lower as its rally since Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential election victory pauses ahead of the key $100,000 milestone. However, the cryptocurrency could soon resume its rise, XTB’s Kathleen Brooks says in a note. “We continue to think that bitcoin will breach the $100,000 level in the coming days and weeks, although it could be choppy in the lead-up to this key level,” she says. There are many put options–which bet on the cryptocurrency falling–around $98,000-$99,000. These could “trip up investors looking for a quick run to $100,000.” Bitcoin falls 1.1% to $98,289 after hitting a record high of $99,830 on Friday, according to LSEG. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0838 GMT – Gilt yields fall as investors await speeches by Bank of England monetary policy committee members Clare Lombardelli and Swati Dhingra at 0900 GMT and 1030 GMT respectively at the Bank of England Watchers’ Conference. Last week’s weaker-than-forecast U.K. retail sales data and PMI data increased market expectations of forthcoming BOE interest-rate cuts, causing gilt yields to decline. The 10-year gilt yield falls around 4 basis points to 4.356%, Tradeweb data show. The 2-year gilt yield declines 3 basis points to 4.302%. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0833 GMT – Singapore’s headline and core inflation are likely to remain well-behaved going forward, Goldman Sachs economists say after October CPI data. This, along with moderating growth momentum after a strong 3Q, would open the door for the Monetary Authority of Singapore to slightly reduce the slope of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate policy band at its April 2025 meeting, GS says in a note. The central bank doesn’t have a set inflation target but views, on average, a core inflation rate of just under 2% as consistent with price stability in the economy. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0832 GMT – The British pound’s further decline against the U.S. dollar is likely to be more gradual and might be limited, says Quek Ser Leang, markets strategist at UOB’s Global Economics and Markets Research. Although the pound’s weakness against the dollar hasn’t stabilized, daily and weekly stochastic indicators are in oversold territory, and downward momentum on the daily chart is slowing, he says in a research report. GBP/USD’s expected decline exceeded UOB’s technical objectives, having plunged to a low of 1.2475 on Friday, Quek notes. That level is acting as strong support in the near term, he adds. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0831 GMT – The euro remains under pressure as investors look ahead to the key Ifo German business confidence survey at 0900 GMT. Friday’s weaker-than-expected eurozone purchasing managers’ data sent the euro to a two-year low against the dollar. “The view here remains there is no fiscal calvary coming in the eurozone and that the only way to address the current malaise is for the European Central Bank to cut rates more quickly than usual,” ING analyst Chris Turner says in a note. Any sharp fall in the Ifo business climate index would suggest businesses are becoming more concerned about looming trading wars, he says. The euro falls 0.2% to $1.0452 after hitting a low of $1.0336 on Friday. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0804 GMT – The dollar declines in the wake of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump announcing he will nominate hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, XTB’s Kathleen Brooks says in a note. “Bessent is seen as an antidote to Trump’s most extreme economic views,” she says. He favors less government spending and is expected to advocate a slow and steady approach to potentially inflationary trade tariffs. This could boost risk sentiment, reducing safe-haven flows to the dollar, Brooks says. However, dollar declines will be limited as the U.S. economy is outperforming. The dollar could still “trade with an upward bias into year end, and any weakness could be used as a buying opportunity.” The DXY dollar index falls 0.4% to 107.101. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0745 GMT – Baidu’s advertising business recovery will likely align with China’s potential macroeconomic recovery in 2025-2026, says Morningstar analyst Kai Wang. Despite mounting concerns of Baidu’s “continued lack of visibility of recovery,” Baidu offsets advertising weakness with cost controls, the analyst notes. A bright spot of the company’s 3Q results was Baidu’s core adjusted operating margin, which beat market expectations, Morningstar notes. While macro conditions weigh on Baidu’s shares, Morningstar’s investment thesis remains intact, expecting Baidu to maintain long-term dominance in China’s search engine industry, he says. Baidu’s shares are last 1.9% higher at HK$78.10. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)
0735 GMT – The FTSE 100 is expected to open eight points higher, or 0.1%, according to IG. The index closed up 112 points, or 1.4%, on Friday. This week the focus will be on the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes on Tuesday and German inflation data on Thursday, Jefferies economist Mohit Kumar says in a note. Other data include the IFO German business confidence survey at 0900 GMT and U.S. gross domestic product, U.S. initial jobless claims and U.S. durable goods orders on Wednesday. Speeches from European Central Bank officials this week will be carefully watched given the close call in market pricing over whether the ECB will cut rates by 25 basis points or 50bp in December, Kumar says. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0714 GMT – An upturn in eurozone inflation will keep the European Central Bank from cutting rates more aggressively next month, Pantheon Macroeconomics economists Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono write in a note to clients. Business surveys last week highlighted the threat of contraction in the currency union’s economy and that could give impetus to calls for a cut of half a point rather than a quarter at December’s policy meeting, Vistesen and Debono say. But inflation will have risen this month, taking it above the ECB’s 2% target, according to Pantheon’s estimates. That will keep policymakers cautious, making a 25-basis-point cut the likeliest decision, the economists say. (joshua.kirby@wsj.com; @joshualeokirby)
0639 GMT – Japanese stocks end higher, led by gains in electronics and chemical stocks, as signs of U.S. economic strength raise hopes for earnings growth. Tokyo Electron gains 4.0% and Mitsubishi Chemical Group rises 3.3%. The Nikkei Stock Average rises 1.3% to 38780.14. USD/JPY is at 154.42, compared with 154.75 late Friday in New York. Investors are focusing on the yen’s movements as well as developments in the Russian-Ukraine war. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield declines 1 basis point to 1.070%. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)
0531 GMT – Asia-Pacific’s growth will be impeded by slower global demand and U.S. trade policy, S&P Global economists say. But lower interest rates and inflation should ease the drag on spending power, say Louis Kuijs and Vishrut Rana. Robust domestic demand can buoy growth in some EMs. In India they see growth easing to 6.8% this fiscal year as high interest rates temper urban demand. In Japan, S&P projects a 0.3% drop in 2024 GDP but thinks household income and consumption will improve as wages grow. It sees annualized quarterly GDP growth of 1.2% through end-2025. “In South Korea and Taiwan, we see GDP expansion easing in 2025 on softer export growth.” S&P tips APAC’s 2024 GDP at 4.5% versus 4.4% projected in September. It sees a pullback to 4.2% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)
0516 GMT – Asia’s exports have continued growing but face rising external risk, S&P Global economists say. “The semiconductor cycle is likely to ease, and we expect the expansion of global trade to slow in 2025 as global economic growth falls,” Louis Kuijs and Vishrut Rana say. More U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports would make other Asian economies more competitive in the U.S., and draw more foreign investment, but weaker growth in China will weigh on its imports from the region, they say. U.S. headwinds for China exporters will likely spur their push into other markets, boosting competition there. S&P hasn’t assumed U.S. trade curbs on Asian economies other than China in its baseline. But the risks on this front have risen, especially for those with a goods trade surplus with the U.S. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)
