Key takeaways:
- Bitcoin’s volatility has fallen below major US stock indexes, even amid escalating Iran–Israel tensions.
- Long-term holders now control a record 14.53 million BTC, reducing the circulating supply.
- Analysts expect Bitcoin to continue rising, with some projecting $150,000 by the end of 2025.
Bitcoin’s BTCUSD price has been more stable for several weeks than many top US stocks, according to data shared by André Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise Europe.
Bitcoin shows maturity as an asset class
As of June 23, Bitcoin’s 60-day realized volatility, a measure of how wildly its price swings, had dropped to around 27-28%, lower than the S&P 500 (~30%), the Nasdaq 100 (~35%), and even the high-flying “Magnificent 7” tech stocks (~40%).
Bitcoin’s low volatility stands out because it’s happening during the escalating Middle East conflict, especially after the US bombing of Iran. BTC price reacted by falling 6% to below $100,000 over the weekend.
In previous cycles, such geopolitical shocks often caused much larger and more chaotic price moves. Namely, Bitcoin’s 60-65% realized volatility at the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022, much higher than US equities.
But this time, Bitcoin’s volatility remained relatively low, suggesting that most traders and investors didn’t react with panic and that BTC is maturing as an asset class.
Bitcoin long-term holder supply at record highs
The growth of long-term holders has largely stabilized Bitcoin in recent weeks, write Glassnode analysts in their recent report.
“Over 30% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is now held by just 216 centralized entities — including ETFs, exchanges, custodians, and corporate treasuries,” they note, adding that such concentrated ownership is turning Bitcoin into a “maturing asset class.”
The total Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders has steadily increased in recent years, reaching a record high of 14.53 million BTC (30-day average) as of June 23, nearly 70% of the maximum 21 million supply.
Bitcoin’s price has been trending higher over the years as long-term holders remove supply from circulation while institutional demand rises, a dynamic fueling sustained upward price pressure.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and OSL chief commercial officer Eugene Cheung anticipate BTC’s price to continue growing above the $100,000 level in the future due to central bank money printing and strong institutional support.
Some analysts even predict Bitcoin will rise above $150,000 by the end of 2025.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.