The price of Bitcoin could swing at least 10% depending on which United States presidential candidate wins the election on Nov. 5, according to a trader, as Bitcoin volatility recently jumped to its highest point in three months.
In a Nov. 4 post, pseudonymous trader Daan Crypto Trades told his 389,000 X followers that Bitcoin’s BTCUSD weekly close didn’t look “the cleanest” but this wouldn’t matter too much with the election looming.
He said there was a good possibility Bitcoin will see “at least a 10% move in either direction depending on who wins the election.
Bitcoin is currently changing hands for $68,682, down 0.5% in the last 24 hours.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s volatility index notched a new three-month high on Nov. 3, according to data from crypto derivatives exchange Derebit.
Bitcoin almost hit an all-time high last week, briefly surging to $74,649 on Oct. 29 before selling off sharply on election uncertainty.
In a Nov. 4 investment note viewed by Cointelegraph, IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore wrote that Bitcoin needs to see a “sustained break above resistance” at the $74,000 level to confirm an uptrend that could see the asset rally sharply toward $80,000.
Sycamore warned that traders should be cautious because a “sustained retreat” below BTC’s support at $65,000 would signal last week’s rally had failed, and the asset would likely return to its seven-month downward trend channel.
The broader sentiment surrounding Bitcoin heading into the election is optimistic — with market pundits noting a bullish trend for risk assets and several positive tailwinds regardless of which candidate comes out on top.
Crypto-friendly Donald Trump is widely viewed as being more bullish for crypto assets in the short term, having made a swathe of promises to protect and foster innovation in the US crypto industry.
Kamala Harris avoided specific mention of cryptocurrency until Sept. 22, when she made a brief comment that her administration would encourage investment in artificial intelligence and digital assets.
Outside of the election, market participants anticipate the US Federal Reserve will continue on its campaign of interest rate cuts following its 50-basis-point cut on Sept. 18.
Further rate cuts are widely seen as bullish for crypto assets because safer investments like term deposits become less appealing to investors.
X Hall of Flame: Harris’ unrealized gains tax could ‘tank markets’ says Nansen’s Alex Svanevik